Keyword: Hayek

Thomas Mayer; Gunther Schnabl

Abstract

We compare the New Keynesian and Austrian explanations for low interest rates in the light of the Corona crisis. From a New Keynesian perspective low interest rates are the result of structural changes in the society and the economy as well as the cyclical downswing triggered by the Corona pandemic. In contrast, from the perspective of Austrian economic theory, interest rates have been pushed down on trend by central banks for a long time to stimulate growth, with the global financial crisis of 2007/08 and the Corona crisis of 2020 acting as powerful accelerators of the euthanasia of interest. New Keynesian theory would suggest that interest rates can be adjusted upward again when conditions change, without creating economic and financial disturbances. Against this, Austrian theory finds that central banks have backed themselves into a corner by creating persistent low-interest expectations.

Keywords: aging societies, central banks, Corona crisis, credit creation, global savings glut, Hansen, Hayek, Keynes, Mises, Monetary policy, secular stagnation, Summers.

JEL Codes: E12, E14, E32, E43.

Erschienen in

Journal of Policy Modeling Volume 43, Issue 6, November–December 2021, Pages 1241-1258.

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Gunther Schnabl; Nils Sonnenberg

Abstract

The paper analyses in light of Austrian and Keynesian economic theory the impact of conventional and unconventional monetary policies as therapies for financial crises. It compares the financial market stabilization measures of the Federal Reserve System and the European System of Central Banks in response to the US subprime crisis and the European financial and debt crisis. It is shown that the Federal Reserve System’s crisis measures were more directed towards stabilizing the banking system, whereas the European Central Bank had a stronger focus on the stabilization of the debt affordability of euro area crisis countries. In both cases, household credit growth remained under control despite renewed monetary expansion, while new imbalances emerged in the corporate sector. In the euro area, loose monetary policy had a destabilizing impact on the financial sector.

Keywords: financial crisis, Financial cycles, financial stability, Hayek, Keynes, Monetary policy.

JEL Codes: B53, E12, E14, E30, E44, E58, G10, G20, H30, H50.

Erschienen in

Working Paper, No. 166.

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Pablo Duarte; Gunther Schnabl

Abstract

Voters in the industrialised countries are increasingly expressing dissatisfaction by dissenting from the established political parties and candidates. Based on the concepts of justice by Hayek, Rawls and Buchanan, we argue that the growing dissatisfaction is rooted in the asymmetric pattern of monetary policies since the mid-1980s for two reasons. First, the structurally declining interest rates and the unconventional monetary policy measures have granted privileges to specific groups. Second, the increasingly expansionary monetary policies have negative growth effects, which have reduced the scope for compensation of the ones excluded from the privileges. As a result, the acceptance of the prevailing economic and political order is undermined and political instability increases.

Keywords: Buchanan, economic order, Hayek, inequality, Monetary policy, political instability, privileges, Rawls.

Erschienen in

The World Economy, 42(2), 2019, 614-634.

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David Herok; Gunther Schnabl

Abstract

Während die Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa stetig sinkt und immer weniger Unternehmen Insolvenz anmelden, wächst im Schatten der anhaltenden Flut des billigen Geldes durch die EZB die Anzahl von sogenannten Zombie -Banken, Zombie-Unternehmen und Zombie Staaten. Diese Entwicklung erinnert an eine Rückkehr zu planwirtschaftlichen Strukturen und erschwert den Ausstieg aus der sehr lockeren Geldpolitik. Nur ein Ausstieg kann jedoch entscheidend der fortschreitenden Zombiefizierung Einhalt zu gebieten, die die marktwirt-schaftlichen Prinzipien unterhöhlt, das Wachstum lähmt und den sozialen Frieden stört.

While unemployment and bankruptcies in Europe are steadily on decline, the number of so-called zombie banks, zombie companies and zombie states is growing in the shadow of the ECB's persistent ultra-easy monetary policy. This development is reminiscent of a return to planned economic structures and makes it much more difficult to exit from the very loose monetary policy. However, an exit is crucial to halting the zombification process which un-dermines free-market principles and growth, and disrupts social peace.

Keywords: Bank Regulation, ECB, Hayek, Interest Rates, Joseph Schumpeter, Monetary policy, Resource Allocation in Planning Economies, Zombie-Firms, Zombie-Lending.

JEL Codes: B31, E58, G28.

Erschienen in

Austrian Institute Paper 21 (2018).

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Gunther Schnabl

Abstract

Das Papier identifiziert auf der Grundlage der monetären Überinvestitionstheorien von Wicksell (1898), Mises (1912) and Hayek (1929, 1937) expansive Geldpolitik als Ursache für Boom-und-Krisen-Zyklen auf den Finanzmärkten sowie für langfristige Stagnation. Das Absenken der Leitzinsen gegen Null wird als Ursache für eine sinkende Grenzleistungsfähigkeit der Investitionen gesehen, da der Bankensektor schleichend nationalisiert wird und strukturelle Verzerrungen zementiert werden. Eine asymmetrische Geldpolitik begünstigt eine Substitution von Realinvestitionen durch Finanzinvestitionen, von privaten Investitionen durch öffentliche Investitionen sowie Umverteilung von mittleren und unteren Einkommensschichten hin zu oberen Einkommensschichten. Der von strukturell sinkenden Zinsen begünstigte Anstieg der Staatsverschuldung sowie eine durch Umverteilungseffekte der Geldpolitik verursachte Reallohnrepression werden als Gründe für die Hysterese sehr expansiver Geldpolitik identifiziert. Es wird ein Anheben der Leitzinsen empfohlen, um die Allokations- und Signalfunktion der Zinsen, das Haftungsprinzip, eine hohe Grenzleistungsfähigkeit der Investitionen und damit eine nachhaltige Wachstumsdynamik wiederherzustellen.

Keywords: asymmetrische Geldpolitik, Finanzmarktkrisen, Grenzleistungsfähigkeit der Investitionen, Hayek, Mises, monetäre Überinvestitionstheorie, Stagnation.

JEL Codes: E52, E58, E63, F42.

Erschienen in

Universität Leipzig Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät Working Paper Series.

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