Net foreign asset positions and appreciation expectations on the Swiss franc and the Japanese Yen
Sophia Latsos; Gunther Schnabl
Abstract
The paper shows that currencies of countries with persistent current account surpluses and high foreign-currency denominated assets, such as the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen, are under persistent appreciation pressure, particularly when the centres of the world monetary system follow expansionary monetary policies. This limits the choice of exchange rate regime. Given flexible exchange rates, a negative risk premium on the domestic interest rate can emerge. Empirical estimations provide mixed evidence for a negative impact of net foreign asset positions and exchange rate uncertainty on interest rates of international creditor countries at the periphery of the world monetary system.
Keywords: appreciation pressure, exchange rate risk, Japanese yen, negative risk premium, self-fulfilling expectations, Swiss franc.
Erschienen in
Int Econ Econ Policy 15, 261–280 (2018).