Archive: Publikationen

Gunther Schnabl; Tim Sepp

Abstract

Das Papier untersucht die Veränderung der Sparkultur in Japan während mehr als 30 Jahren Niedrig-, Null- und Negativzinspolitik basierend auf einer Analyse der Allokationsfunktion von Zinsen und der Transformationsfunktion der Banken bei der Kreditvergabe. Es wird gezeigt, wie durch die anhaltend lockere Geldpolitik der Bank von Japan die Sparkultur in Japan grundlegend von einer hohen Haushaltssparquote zu einer sehr niedrigen Haushaltssparquote verändert wurde. Es werden aufbauend auf der theoretischen Literatur zu Sparmotiven Kanäle identifiziert, die das Haushalts- und Unternehmenssparen maßgeblich verändert und damit die Wachstumskräfte des Landes anhaltend geschwächt haben.

Keywords: Abenomics, Geldpolitik, Haushaltssparen, Japan, Nullzinspolitik, Sparen, Sparkultur, Unternehmenssparen.

JEL Codes: E21, E43, E52.

Erschienen in

Working Paper, No. 174.

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Kristoffer J. M. Hansen

Abstract

Recent debates in monetary theory have centered on so-called free banking and the role of banks in providing money in the form of fiduciary media in a pure market economy. This paper examines how and to what extent fiduciary media can emerge in a pure market economy. Based on the theory of value, it is argued that those economists are mistaken who claim that money substitutes must in all cases be interpreted as being money titles. Those economists too are mistaken, however, who claim a large role for the circulation of fiduciary media in a pure market economy. It is argued that holding fiduciary media in one’s cash balance is an entrepreneurial error, as fiduciary media by their nature do not have the qualities people demand in holding money. Money is the comparatively most certain good and the present good par excellence, qualities that fiduciary media do not have. Holding fiduciary media instead of money is therefore an entrepreneurial error, and like all errors in the free market, it will tend to be eliminated in the process of entrepreneurial profit and loss, leading to the virtual disappearance of all fiduciary media from the market economy.

Keywords: fiduciary media, free banking, money.

JEL Codes: B53, E22, E51, G21.

Erschienen in

Quart J Austrian Econ (2021) 24.2:286–316.

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Gunther Schnabl; Tim Sepp

Abstract

Viele Menschen im Euroraum haben zunehmend das Gefühl, dass der allgemeine Kaufkraftverlust des Geldes sehr viel höher ist als die offiziell gemessenen Inflationsraten. So lag Umfrageergebnissen zufolge z. B. im ersten Quartal 2021 die gefühlte Inflation im Euroraum bei 4,5 %, während die offiziell gemessene Inflationsrate 1 % betrug. Das könnte daran liegen, dass Preissteigerungen subjektiv stärker wahrgenommen werden als Preissenkungen. Es kann aber ebenso gut daran liegen, wie Preisstabilität gemessen wird und wie sich die Umsetzung des Ziels der Preisstabilität durch die Europäische Zentralbank verändert hat.

JEL Codes: E31, E50.

Erschienen in

Wirtschaftsdienst, 101(8), 615-620..

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Taiki Murai; Gunther Schnabl

Abstract

The paper analyses the role of fiscal and monetary policy for the development of the current account imbalances in the euro area, including the most recent developments during the coronavirus crisis. Several financial transmission channels such as international bank lending, changes in TARGET2 balances, international rescue credit and government bond purchases of euro area central banks are identified. It is found that differing fiscal policy stances which have interacted differently with the ECB’s monetary policy have been at roots of first diverging and then converging current account positions in the euro area. Since the European financial and debt crisis, public financing mechanisms and the unconventional monetary of the ECB have contributed to the persistence of intra-euro area current account imbalances.

Keywords: current account, current account imbalances, EU, euro, European Monetary Union, financial account, fiscal policy, Monetary policy, TARGET2.

JEL Codes: F320, F330, F420, H620.

Erschienen in

CESifo Working Paper No. 9153.

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Kristoffer J. M. Hansen

Abstract

There have been many calls for reforming the gold standard since the end of the classical gold standard and especially since the end of Bretton Woods. While these calls have somewhat abated in recent years, this article will attempt to show that the gold standard is still a superior monetary system, and that the reform of the monetary system is still a desirable policy.
We will proceed by first analyzing the shortcomings of the present fiat-money order, indicating how it distorts the market and society through inflation, redistribution, by artificially increasing the importance of financial markets, and by hampering US industrial production in international trade. Then we will show that these problems would cease to exist under the gold standard, and we will indicate a possible reform for returning to gold in the US. Finally, we will argue that such a reform in order to be successful must become a popular crusade—i.e., it must become a populist issue.

Keywords: austrian economics, gold standard, Monetary policy, populism.

Erschienen in

Journal of Libertarian Studies Volume 24, No. 2 (2020): 323–361.

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Thomas Mayer; Gunther Schnabl

Abstract

Rising public debt everywhere has raised the question of how to reduce debt again in the future. High public debt also seems to be an impediment for the exit of central banks from ultra-low interest rates and quantitative easing. Historical precedents and proposals have included austerity, haircuts and the generation of inflation. Each way has advantages and disadvantages, including uncertainty about effects and side-effects. We approach the issue from an historical perspective, based on case studies of prominent approaches to debt reduction. We analyze debt reduction through economic austerity in Italy, hyperinflation in Germany after World War I, inflation in Argentina since the 1980s, currency reform in Germany after WW II, and financial repression in the United States and the United Kingdom after WW II. Finally, we discuss Ronald McKinnon’s order of economic and financial liberalization as well as the Chicago Plan combined with the introduction of central bank digital currencies as an option for the future.

Keywords: economic reform, hyperinflation, inflation, low-interest trap, monetary reform, over-indebtness, Public debt, public debt relief.

JEL Codes: H120, H630, P260.

Erschienen in

CESifo Working Paper No. 9078.

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Thomas Mayer; Gunther Schnabl

Abstract

In this paper we compare the Keynesian, neoclassical and Austrian explanations for low interest rates and sluggish growth. From a Keynesian and neoclassical perspective low interest rates are attributed to ageing societies, which save more for the future (global savings glut). Low growth is linked to slowing population growth and a declining marginal efficiency of investment as well as to declining fixed capital investment due to digitalization (secular stagnation). In contrast, from the perspective of Austrian business cycle theory, interest rates were step by step decreased by central banks to stimulate growth. This paralyzed investment and growth in the long term. We show that the ability of banks to extend credit ex nihilo and the need of time to produce capital invalidates the IS identity assumed in the Keynesian theory to hold permanently. Furthermore, we find no empirical evidence for the global savings glut and secular stagnation hypotheses. Instead, low growth can be explained by the emergence of quasi “soft budget constraints” as a result of low interest rates, which reduce the incentive for banks and enterprises to strive for efficiency.

Keywords: growth, interest, savings, secular stagnation.

JEL Codes: E12, E14, E32, E43.

Erschienen in

Quart J Austrian Econ (2021) 24.1:3–40.

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Gunther Schnabl; Taiki Murai

Abstract

The bursting of the Japanese bubble economy in the early 1990s put the stage for a lasting lowzero-, and negative-interest rate environment, which fundamentally changed the business environment for the Japanese commercial banks. On the income side, with interest margins becoming increasingly depressed, net interest revenues declined, which forced the banks to expand revenues from fees and commissions. The banks had to cut costs by reducing the number of employees, closing branches and merging into larger banks. The gradual concentration process has most recently cumulated in the relaxation of the monopoly law. With the capital allocation function of banks being undermined, the Japanese economy has become zombified, suffering from anemic growth.

Keywords: Bank of Japan, banks, concentration, financial repression, interest margin, Japan, Monetary policy, regional banks.

JEL Codes: E50, E52, G21.

Erschienen in

Working Paper, No. 169.

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Thomas Mayer; Gunther Schnabl

Abstract

The coronavirus crisis has caused new distress in the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), as the southern part of the EMU has been hit stronger than the northern part. The common currency prevents nominal exchange rate adjustment in response to the asymmetric shock. Policymakers have therefore taken recourse to large-scale financial transfers. Based on the lessons from the German monetary union, this article proposes instead the introduction of parallel currencies to facilitate relative price changes. Parallel currencies in the south would allow an increase in competitiveness of the south via real depreciation. The introduction of a parallel currency in Germany would lead to capital inflows and a real appreciation of the new German mark. The pre-EMU pressure for structural adjustments and productivity gains would be restored.

Erschienen in

Intereconomics, 2020, 55. Jg., Nr. 6, S. 387-391.

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Karl-Friedrich Israel; Gunther Schnabl

Abstract

Since the 1980s inflationary pressures seem to materialize overproportionately outside of the sectors of consumer goods and services. We combine the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices with indices for asset prices, such as stocks and real estate, as well as the costs of public goods to develop alternative inflation measures in Germany since the introduction of the euro. Real economic growth as well as median wage developments are reexamined in light of the alternative inflation estimates. Both turn out to be negative over the past decade in the most pessimistic scenarios.

Keywords: assets prices, costs of public goods, Germany, harmonized index of consumer prices, hidden inflation, inflation, inflation targeting, Monetary policy, real economic growth, real wages.

JEL Codes: E310, E520, E580, O110.

Erschienen in

CESifo Working Paper No. 8583.

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