Jahr: 2020

Gunther Schnabl; Taiki Murai

Abstract

The bursting of the Japanese bubble economy in the early 1990s put the stage for a lasting lowzero-, and negative-interest rate environment, which fundamentally changed the business environment for the Japanese commercial banks. On the income side, with interest margins becoming increasingly depressed, net interest revenues declined, which forced the banks to expand revenues from fees and commissions. The banks had to cut costs by reducing the number of employees, closing branches and merging into larger banks. The gradual concentration process has most recently cumulated in the relaxation of the monopoly law. With the capital allocation function of banks being undermined, the Japanese economy has become zombified, suffering from anemic growth.

Keywords: Bank of Japan, banks, concentration, financial repression, interest margin, Japan, Monetary policy, regional banks.

JEL Codes: E50, E52, G21.

Erschienen in

Working Paper, No. 169.

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Thomas Mayer; Gunther Schnabl

Abstract

The coronavirus crisis has caused new distress in the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), as the southern part of the EMU has been hit stronger than the northern part. The common currency prevents nominal exchange rate adjustment in response to the asymmetric shock. Policymakers have therefore taken recourse to large-scale financial transfers. Based on the lessons from the German monetary union, this article proposes instead the introduction of parallel currencies to facilitate relative price changes. Parallel currencies in the south would allow an increase in competitiveness of the south via real depreciation. The introduction of a parallel currency in Germany would lead to capital inflows and a real appreciation of the new German mark. The pre-EMU pressure for structural adjustments and productivity gains would be restored.

Erschienen in

Intereconomics, 2020, 55. Jg., Nr. 6, S. 387-391.

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Karl-Friedrich Israel; Gunther Schnabl

Abstract

Since the 1980s inflationary pressures seem to materialize overproportionately outside of the sectors of consumer goods and services. We combine the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices with indices for asset prices, such as stocks and real estate, as well as the costs of public goods to develop alternative inflation measures in Germany since the introduction of the euro. Real economic growth as well as median wage developments are reexamined in light of the alternative inflation estimates. Both turn out to be negative over the past decade in the most pessimistic scenarios.

Keywords: assets prices, costs of public goods, Germany, harmonized index of consumer prices, hidden inflation, inflation, inflation targeting, Monetary policy, real economic growth, real wages.

JEL Codes: E310, E520, E580, O110.

Erschienen in

CESifo Working Paper No. 8583.

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Gunther Schnabl; Tim Sepp

Abstract

30 Jahre nach dem Mauerfall wurde keine volle Konvergenz der Wirtschaftsleistung und der Lebensverhältnisse zwischen Ost- und Westdeutschland erreicht. Das Papier zeigt die unvollständige Konvergenz bei Produktivität, Einkommen, Steueraufkommen und Vermögen auf. Es diskutiert mögliche Gründe wie das Erbe der Planwirtschaft, wirtschaftspolitische Fehler bei der Wiedervereinigung sowie die ungleiche Konzentration von großen Unternehmen. Darauf aufbauend werden die Hartz-Reformen, die regionalen Verteilungseffekte einer zunehmend lockeren europäischen Geldpolitik sowie der schleichende Verlust einer marktwirtschaftlichen Ordnung als alternative Ursachen für die unterbrochene Konvergenz diskutiert. Daraus werden wirtschaftspolitische Empfehlungen für eine Konvergenz der Wirtschaftskraft in Ostdeutschland abgeleitet.

Erschienen in

List Forum für Wirtschafts- und Finanzpolitik volume 45, pp. 397–421 (2020).

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Gunther Schnabl; Nils Sonnenberg

Abstract

The paper analyses in light of Austrian and Keynesian economic theory the impact of conventional and unconventional monetary policies as therapies for financial crises. It compares the financial market stabilization measures of the Federal Reserve System and the European System of Central Banks in response to the US subprime crisis and the European financial and debt crisis. It is shown that the Federal Reserve System’s crisis measures were more directed towards stabilizing the banking system, whereas the European Central Bank had a stronger focus on the stabilization of the debt affordability of euro area crisis countries. In both cases, household credit growth remained under control despite renewed monetary expansion, while new imbalances emerged in the corporate sector. In the euro area, loose monetary policy had a destabilizing impact on the financial sector.

Keywords: financial crisis, Financial cycles, financial stability, Hayek, Keynes, Monetary policy.

JEL Codes: B53, E12, E14, E30, E44, E58, G10, G20, H30, H50.

Erschienen in

Working Paper, No. 166.

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Karl-Friedrich Israel; Sophia Latsos

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of conventional and unconventional monetary policy on income inequality in Japan, using hitherto unexplored data from the Japan Household Panel Survey. Empirical evidence shows that expansionary monetary policy in Japan has contributed to diminishing the gender pay gap through an increase in working time of women relative to men, but also to increasing the education pay gap. These effects may have materialized via the aggregate demand channel and the labour productivity channel. In contrast, expansionary monetary policy has had no significant impact on the development of the age pay gap.

Keywords: income inequality, Japan, low interest rate policy, Monetary policy, unconventional monetary policy.

JEL Codes: D31, D63, E52, E58.

Erschienen in

Applied Economics Volume 52, 2020 - Issue 40.

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