Wohnimmobilienpreise, Inflationsmessung und Geldpolitik im Euroraum

Alexander Herborn; Gunther Schnabl

März 2022

Abstract

Die Niedrigzinspolitik der EZB hat in vielen Ländern des Euroraums zu einem starken Anstieg der Wohnimmobilienpreise beigetragen. In der jüngsten Strategieüberprüfung der EZB wurde die Integration von selbstgenutztem Wohneigentum in den Harmonisierte Verbraucherpreisindex auf der Grundlage eines neuen Index in Aussicht gestellt. Laut Alexander Herborn und Gunther Schnabl dürfte jedoch auch in Zukunft die offiziell gemessene Verbraucherpreisinflation verzerrt sein. Das könnte dazu beitragen, dass die Vermögensungleichheit im Euroraum weiter steigt und die Risiken für die Finanzstabilität zunehmen.

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Erschienen in

Wifa Working Paper, No. 175.

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The Impact of the Bank of Japan’s Low-Interest Rate Policy on the Japanese Banking Sector

Gerstenberger, Juliane; Schnabl, Gunther

Februar 2022

Abstract

Gunther Schnabl and Juliane Gerstenberger analyse the impact of the Bank of Japan’s low-interest rate policy on the banking sector in the wake of the 1998 Japanese financial crisis. They provide evidence that the Japanese monetary policy has contributed to declining efficiency in the banking sector, despite – or possibly because of – the increasing concentration within this sector.

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Erschienen in

Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital, Bd. 54 (2021), Heft 4: S. 533–562.

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A Database and Index for Political Polarization in the EU

Sebastian Müller; Gunther Schnabl

Januar 2022

Abstract

In many European countries, political parties at the extreme left or right of the political spectrum have gained votes in democratic elections. This process is widely referred to as growing political polarization. The IWP database for political polarization covers the parliamentary elections in the EU-27 countries and in the United Kingdom since 1990. It provides a systematic scheme of categorizing extreme political parties. Parties falling in the category of extreme are those that either reject or question liberal democratic systems, market-based economic principles and/or the European Union. The database allows to depict the political polarization trend in the EU-27, in different geographic sub-groups and individual member states (including the UK). The aggregated index as well as the sub-indices provide evidence for an increasing and persistent political polarization in the European Union.

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Erschienen in

Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(4), pp. 2232-2248..

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With a Carrot and a Stick: The Effects of the European Central Bank’s Negative Interest Rate Policy on the Banking System

Gunther Schnabl; Nils Sonnenberg

Dezember 2021

Abstract

Gunther Schnabl and Nils Sonnenberg show that the ECB is weakening the profitability of banks while strengthening them in a way that allows it to implement policy goals with the help of commercial banks. Moreover, with the help of the negative interest rate policy, banks from the southern euro area, along with large banks that have struggled, tend to be propped up, but at the expense of banks in the northern euro area.

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Erschienen in

Austrian Institute Paper No. 40-EN/2021.

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Covid-19 and the euthanasia of interest rates: A critical assessment of central bank policy in our times

Thomas Mayer; Gunther Schnabl

Dezember 2021

Abstract

We compare the New Keynesian and Austrian explanations for low interest rates in the light of the Corona crisis. From a New Keynesian perspective low interest rates are the result of structural changes in the society and the economy as well as the cyclical downswing triggered by the Corona pandemic. In contrast, from the perspective of Austrian economic theory, interest rates have been pushed down on trend by central banks for a long time to stimulate growth, with the global financial crisis of 2007/08 and the Corona crisis of 2020 acting as powerful accelerators of the euthanasia of interest. New Keynesian theory would suggest that interest rates can be adjusted upward again when conditions change, without creating economic and financial disturbances. Against this, Austrian theory finds that central banks have backed themselves into a corner by creating persistent low-interest expectations.

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Erschienen in

Journal of Policy Modeling Volume 43, Issue 6, November–December 2021, Pages 1241-1258.

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Mit Peitsche und Zuckerbrot: Die Auswirkungen der Negativzinspolitik der EZB auf das Bankensystem

Gunther Schnabl; Nils Sonnenberg

November 2021

Abstract

Gunther Schnabl und Nils Sonnenberg erklären, wie die EZB die Profitabilität der Banken schwächt und sie gleichzeitig in einer Weise stärkt, die es ihr ermöglicht, mit Hilfe der Geschäftsbanken politische Ziele umzusetzen. Mit Hilfe der Negativzinspolitik werden Banken aus dem südlichen Euroraum wie auch Großbanken gestützt.

Erschienen in

Austrian Institute Paper Nr. 40 (2021).

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Determinants of Japanese Household Saving Behavior in the Low-Interest Rate Environment

Sophia Latsos; Gunther Schnabl

November 2021

Abstract

This paper scrutinizes the role of prolonged, expansionary monetary policy on the savings behavior of Japanese households, focusing on the dramatic change of the household savings rate since 1998, from high to low savings. The literature generally attributes this change to the country’s shift from high-growth to low-growth and its demographic change. This paper empirically examines changes in the incentives for saving and the ability to save connected to monetary policy. It finds that monetary policy had a significant impact on Japan’s household behavior via the interest rate channel and the redistribution channel but not the labor income channel. There is also evidence that rising wealth boosts savings.

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Erschienen in

The Economists’ Voice.

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Japanese monetary policy and household saving

Karl-Friedrich Israel; Tim Florian Sepp; Nils Sonnenberg

Oktober 2021

Abstract

This article analyzes the impact of monetary policy on household saving in Japan between 1993 and 2017. Using annual data from the Japan Panel Survey of Consumers it is shown that monetary expansion has contributed to a widening gap in households’ net saving through an adverse effect on the volume of saving of non-academic households. In contrast, households with at least one academic tend to be able to compensate these adverse effects of monetary expansion or can even benefit from it. The article documents how inequality in terms of the ability to build up wealth has increased in Japan over the past decades. The statistical analysis controls for household size as well as potential spatial effects in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy on household saving.

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Erschienen in

Applied Economics, 1-17.

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Auch die Konsumentenpreisinflation dürfte auf längere Zeit steigen

Gunther Schnabl, Tim Florian Sepp

September 2021

Abstract

Während sich die Wogen der Corona-Maßnahmen nur langsam glätten, ist ein neuer Unruheherd aufgetaucht. Die Inflation steigt. In den USA wurde für Juli 2021 eine Inflationsrate von 5,4 % gemeldet, für den Euroraum für August 3,0 % und für Deutschland 3,9 %. Da die Lohnabschlüsse bisher sehr zurückhaltend waren, ergibt sich daraus ein schmerzlicher Kaufkraftverlust.

Erschienen in

Wirtschaftsdienst, 101(9), 684-687.

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